A useful RFA reminder is circulating: unmatched restricted free-agent offer sheets have become extremely rare in recent years. The commonly cited benchmark is 2020, with most meaningful RFA movement since then happening through sign-and-trade structures rather than clean poaching.
That trend matters for team-building expectations. Fans often view RFAs as accessible upside swings, but market behavior suggests incumbent teams usually retain control unless a broader transaction framework is involved. In practical terms, front offices that target RFAs often need parallel trade pathways, not just cap-space optimism.
Bottom line: the modern RFA market is more about leverage and structure than simple offer-sheet wins. If a team wants a restricted player, sign-and-trade mechanics are typically the more realistic route.
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